Research

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION

Primary: Macroeconomics, Development Macroeconomics

Secondary: Applied Econometrics, Computational Economics, Open-market Macroeconomics,

Industrial Organization.

REFEREED ARTICLES

Agénor, Pierre-Richard and Nihal Bayraktar, “Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve: Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries,” Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming 2010).

Bayraktar, Nihal. "Investment, Alternative Measures of Fundamentals, and Revenue Indicators," International Journal of Revenue Management, 3(2), 2009, 148-178.

Bayraktar, Nihal and Yan Wang. "Banking Sector Openness and Economic Growth," Margin – The Journal of Applied Economic Research,Vol. 2, No. 2, 2008, pages 145-175.

Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Nihal Bayraktar, and Karim El Aynaoui, "Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction." Journal of Development Economics, vol. 86, issue 2, June 2008, pages 277-295.

Pinto-Moreira, Emmanuel and Nihal Bayraktar. "Foreign Aid, Growth and Poverty: A Policy Framework for Niger," Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 30, issue 3, May-June 2008, pages 523-539.

Agénor, P.R., N. Bayraktar, E. Pinto Moreira, and Karim El Aynaoui. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," the World Economy, vol. 29, issue 11, November 2006, pages 1519-1547.

Bayraktar, Nihal and Yan Wang. "Foreign Bank Entry, Performance of Domestic Banks and the Sequence of Financial Liberalization," China Journal of Finance, Vol. 2. No. 2, 2004.

BOOK CHAPTERS

Bayraktar, Nihal. "Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and the MDGs: A quantitative Analysis." Chapter 6. World Bank Country Economic Memorandum on Niger. Washington DC: World Bank. (2006).

Nihal Bayraktar and Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, "Constraints to Strong and Sustainable Growth and Poverty Traps." Chapter 4. World Bank Country Economic Memorandum on Niger. Washington DC: World Bank. (2006).

Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Nihal Bayraktar, and Karim El Aynaoui, "Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction." Chapter 4. World Bank Country Economic Memorandum on Ethiopia. Washington DC: World Bank. (2004).

PAPERS UNDER REVIEW

Bayraktar, Nihal, and Hippolyte Fofack. “Specifications of Investment Functions in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Journal of African Economies, (April 2010) [revised resubmission].

Published as World Bank Working Paper No: 4171 (March 2007).

WORKING PAPERS AND PAPERS IN PROGRESS

Bayraktar, Nihal and Blanca Moreno-Dodson. "Impact of Public Spending and its Composition on Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Fast versus Slow Growing Developing Countries", (April 2010), mimeo.

Nallari, Raj and Nihal Bayraktar. "Micro Efficiency and Macro Growth", World Bank Working Paper No: 5267 (April 2010).

Bayraktar, Nihal. “Investment, Alternative Measures of Fundamentals, and Financial Variables.” Published as a Penn State Harrisburg School of Business Administration Working Paper No: 08-15 (October 2008).

Bayraktar, Nihal and Emmanuel Pinto Moreira. “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth: A Small-Scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries,” World Bank Working Paper No: 4430 (December 2007).

Agenor, P.R., N. Bayraktar, and E. Pinto Moreira. “Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models: Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements," World Bank Working Paper No: 3944 (June 2006).

Bayraktar, Nihal, Plutarchos Sakellaris, and Philip Vermeulen. “Real Versus Financial Frictions to Capital Investment,” European Central Bank Working Paper No. 566 (December 2005).

PRESENTATION OF REFEREED PAPERS

Bayraktar, Nihal and Blanca Moreno-Dodson. "Impact of Public Spending and its Composition on Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Fast versus Slow Growing Developing Countries" The 25th European Economic Association Congress, EEA, Glasgow – U.K. (August, 2010).

Bayraktar, Nihal and Blanca Moreno-Dodson. "Impact of Public Spending and its Composition on Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Fast versus Slow Growing Developing Countries" Emerging Markets EuroConference 2010, Milas, Turkey (July 16-18, 2010).

Bayraktar, Nihal and Blanca Moreno-Dodson. "Impact of Public Spending and its Composition on Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Fast versus Slow Growing Developing Countries" Economic Modeling Network Conference (ECOMOD) Istanbul, Turkey (July 7-10, 2010).

Bayraktar, Nihal. "Investment, Fundamentals and Agency Cost of Contracting Models," The 24th European Economic Association Congress, EEA, Barcelona - SPAIN (August 27, 2009).

Agenor, P. & Bayraktar, N. (2008, August). Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries. Accepted for The 23rd European Economic Association Congress - Milan, Italy August 27-31, 2008, Milan, Italy.

Bayraktar, N. (2008, July). The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth: A Small-scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries.   Accepted for EcoMod2008, International Conference on Policy Modeling, Berlin 2-4, 2008, Berlin, Germany.

Agenor, P. & Bayraktar, N. (2008, June). Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries.   Accepted for International Economic Association 15th World Congress, Istanbul, Turkey.

Bayraktar, N. & Pinto Moreira, E. (2007, March). The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth: A Small-scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries.   Presented at Seminar series - World Bank - Latin America and Caribbean Region, Washington, District of Columbia.

Bayraktar, N. & Sakellaris, P. (2007, January). Firm Market Value and Investment: The Role of Market Power and Adjustment Costs.   Presented at ASSA Meetings, Chicago, Illinois.

Bayraktar, N., Agénor, P., & El Aynaoui, K. (2006, October). Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction.  Presented at 62nd International Atlantic Economic Conference, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Pinto Moreira, E. & Bayraktar, N. (2005, December). A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategies in Niger.   Presented at 3rd Murat Sertel Graduate Student Festival (CENTER FOR ECONOMIC DESIGN - BOGAZICI UNIVERSITY ), ISTANBUL, Turkey.

Bayraktar, N. & Sakellaris, P. (2005, August). Firm Market Value and Investment: The Role of Firm Market Power and Different Types of Adjustment Costs.   Accepted for European Economic Association Meeting, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Bayraktar, N. & Pinto-Moreira, E. (2005, June). A Macro Framework for Quantifying Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategies in Niger.   Presented at International Conference on Policy Modeling, Istanbul, Turkey.

Bayraktar, N. & Wang, Y. (2005, May). Foreign Bank Entry and Domestic Banks Performance: Evidence Using Bank-Level Data.   Presented at Shanghai Forum 2005, Shanghai, China.

PRESENTATION OF NON-REFEREED PAPERS

Bayraktar, Nihal. (2008, May) “Workshop on Macroeconomic Modeling for Burundi” Bujumbura, Burundi.

Bayraktar, N. & Pinto Moreira, E. (2007, August). The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth: A Small-scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries.   Invited presentation at Bogazici University - Brown Bag Seminar Series, Istanbul, Turkey.

Bayraktar, Nihal. (2007, March) “Workshop on Macroeconomic Modeling for Madagascar” Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Bayraktar, Nihal. (2007, February) “Workshop on Macroeconomic Modeling for the Dominican Republic” Santo Domingo, the Dominican Republic.

Bayraktar, Nihal. (2005, October) “Workshop on Macroeconomic Modeling for Niger” Niamey, Niger.

Agenor, R. , Bayraktar, N., Pinto-Moreira, E., & El Aynaoui, K. (2005, September). Building Strategy Papers for Human Development: A Monitoring Framework for Niger.   Invited presentation at Workshop on Accelerating Growth and Achieving the MDGs, Washington, District of Columbia.

Bayraktar, N. , Agenor, P., & El Aynaoui, K. (2006, November). Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction. Penn State Harrisburg Seminar Series, Middletown, Pennsylvania.

Pinto Moreira, E. & Bayraktar, N. (2005, April). A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategies in Niger. Invited presentation at Brown Bag Seminar Series (Department of Business at Elizabethtown College), Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania.

RESEARCH GRANTS

2005 - Bayraktar, N., "RESEARCH COUNCIL GRANT: 2005-06 COMPETITIONS", Penn State Capital College, ( $3,300).

SOFTWARE DEVELOPED

2008: Un Modèle SPAHD pour l’analyse des stratégies de croissance et de développement humain. This simulation program package written in E-views is used to solve the SPAHD model for Burundi. The candidate attended a workshop in Burundi to explain the simulation program to a group of economists working in the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and different universities.

2007:  Un Modèle SPAHD pour l’analyse des stratégies de croissance et de développement humain. This simulation program package written in E-views is used to solve the SPAHD model for Madagascar.

2007:  A SPAHD Model for the Dominican Republic. This simulation program package written in E-views is used to solve the SPAHD model for the Dominican Republic.

2005:  Updated version of the numerical simulation package is created for Niger (Bayraktar and Pinto-Moreira, 2005) in E-Views for Microeconomic Modeling. It is the updated version of the initial program used in simulating the models for Ethiopia (Agénor, Bayraktar, El Aynaoui, 2005).

OTHER RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

2008 - An operational manual giving detailed information on the simulation of a SPAHD model for Burundi. The manual explains how the model is specified, the parameters are calibrated, and the program is run. It also explains the different steps to follow to introduce policy shocks, analyze the output table, and derives policy implications. In order to help readers not familiar with Eviews to get started, we provide some basic information on EViews 6.0.

2007 -  An operational manual giving detailed information on the simulation of a SPAHD model for Madagascar. The manual explains how the model is specified, the parameters are calibrated, and the program is run. It also explains the different steps to follow to introduce policy shocks, analyze the output table, and derives policy implications. In order to help readers not familiar with Eviews to get started, we provide some basic information on EViews 4.0.

2007 -  An operational manual giving detailed information on the simulation of a SPAHD model for the Dominican Republic. The manual explains how the model is specified, the parameters are calibrated, and the program is run. It also explains the different steps to follow to introduce policy shocks, analyze the output table, and derives policy implications. In order to help readers not familiar with Eviews to get started, we provide some basic information on EViews 4.0.

2005 - The second version of this operational manual gives detailed information on the simulation of a macroeconomic model linking aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, health, and infrastructure), and growth, developed by Agénor, Bayraktar, and El Aynaoui (2005) and applied to Niger by Pinto Moreira and Bayraktar (2005).