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Jim Kompanek
2002 Congressional Election Results in Texas
The 2002 Congressional election results in Texas are depicted in Figure 1. The results are depicted with a diverging color scheme, with darker hues representing stronger electoral results: Red indicating stronger Republican victories and dark blue indicating Democratic strength. Based on the Figure 1, it appears that the majority of the Democratic base resides in the urban areas of Dallas and Houston. The Republican base appears to be less centralized and generally more rural than their Democratic counterparts but do appear to be in control of the suburban regions surrounding Dallas and Houston. Outside of the Democratic cities (Dallas and Houston), the districts to the northeast, southeast, and central portions of the states also appear to be leaning Democratic. The Republicans appear to have an advantage along the western border and central/south-central districts in the state. In general, based on the available data, it is difficult to determine how urban each district is. For the purpose of this analysis, it is assumed that the smaller districts contain a higher population density than the larger districts.
Figure 1. 2002 Congressional Election Results in Texas
Proposed Redistricting of Texas Congressional Districts
The proposed redistricting appears to benefit the Republicans. Based on a cursory examination of the proposed district boundaries overlaid on the 2002 election results (Figure 2), it appears that the boundaries of Republican districts were extended into the weak, presumably rural Democratic districts (where they were only at a slight advantage). These modification appear to be enough to likely shift control of the rural Democratic-leaning districts to the Republicans.
Figure 2. Proposed Redistricting overlaid on 2002 Congressional Election Results in Texas
Predicted Election Outcome Based on Redistricting
As observed in the previous section, the predicted outcome based on the redistricting appears to have removed Democratic influence in the central portion of the state, as well as transitioned virtually all Democratic control to the Republicans in the northeast. This appears to have been accomplished by extending strong Republican districts into borderline Democratic-leaning districts. One potential flaw to this prediction is that it assumes that each district has a homogenous population, when in reality, there will likely be variation within each district.
Figure 3. Proposed Redistricting overlaid on 2002 Congressional Election Results in Texas
This document is published in fulfillment of an assignment by a student enrolled in an educational offering of The Pennsylvania State University. The student, named above, retains all rights to the document and responsibility for its accuracy and originality.
