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Jim Kompanek
Introduction:
Lesson 6 is the third part of a multi-part lesson that involves designing and implementing GIS databases. Specifically, this lesson consists of spatial and tabular joins of voter registration data and the production of thematic maps to display trends in voter registration data. The goals of this lesson consist of (Sloan 2007):
Join lookup tables similar to the Coded Domains designed in Lesson 4;
Perform spatial joins with downloaded data from Lesson 5;
Summarize information from joined tables;
Display the results with thematic maps.
Required Figures/Table:
Figure 1. Screenshot depicting the percentage of population (2000) registered to vote by US Census Block in the City of Fitchburg. Click on above graphic for full size image.
Figure 2. Screenshot depicting the party affiliation of registered voters by US Census Block in the City of Fitchburg, with the size of each pie chart relative to the total number of registered voters per block. Click on above graphic for full size image.
Figure 3. Screenshot depicting the percentage of registered Hispanic voters in each census block within the City of Fitchburg. Label indicates the total number of registered Hispanic voter in each block. Click on above graphic for full size image.
Figure 4. Screenshot depicting the percentage of registered Hispanic voters with breakdown of political party registration (of all ethnicities) in each census block. Click on above graphic for full size image.
Table 1. Percent of entire population registered to vote (Pct_Alleth) and percent of Hispanic population registered to vote (Pct_Hisp).
Analysis:
Geographic Distribution of Registered Voters:
The percentage of the population registered to vote varies from approximately 38 to 80 percent (Figure 1). Three census blocks have the lowest percentages of registered voters (38 to 45 percent). These three blocks are located in the central portion of the city, near the eastern and west limits. Nine blocks have between 45 and 51 percent of its population registered to vote. These blocks are generally located to the northern, central, and southeastern regions of the city. The blocks with the highest percentage of registered voters (69 to 80 percent) are generally located in the central part of the city. It should be noted that these rates were calculated simply by dividing the total number of registered voters by the total population of each block. As a result, the percentages may be skewed, as they do not take into account the total number of eligible voters. The low percentage of registered voters observed in some of the blocks may actually be indicative of some blocks having a higher percentage of children than other blocks. The high percentage of registered voters in other blocks may also indicate blocks with a higher percentage of adults. A more meaningful analysis would have divided the number of registered voters by the total number of adults aged eighteen or older.
Geographic Distribution of Political Parties:
The distribution of political party registration is generally consistent throughout the city. Most registered voters are either registered Mugwumps or Whigs. The other parties consist of a very small percentage of registered voters. Although the party distribution is consistent throughout the city, the blocks in the central portion of the city trend slightly more Whig than Mugwump.
Hispanic Voters and the Whig Party:
The Hispanic population has a smaller percentage of registered voters than the city as a whole. Fifty three percent of the city is registered to vote, while only 23 percent of Hispanics are registered (Table 1). This number may not be accurate because it is based on the entire population of the city, not just those eligible to vote. A more accurate calculation would involve dividing the total number of registered voters by the total number of eligible voters (either Hispanic or overall). The low percentage of Hispanic voters indicated in Table 1 may just reflect an overall younger Hispanic population and not necessary a lower level of civic engagement.
It would be advantageous for the Whig party to invest in Spanish language flyers. Figure 3 depicts an overall lower percentage of Hispanic voters than all ethnicities within the city as a whole (Figure 1). According to Figure 4, there isn't a clear link between party registration and the percentage of registered Hispanic voters. A more meaningful analysis would consist of a pie chart with the breakdown of party affiliation among registered Hispanic voters on top of the a thematic map with the percent of registered Hispanic voters. With this map, it could be determined if Hispanic voters are more Whig or Mugwump leaning. If Hispanic voters are more Mugwump leaning in certain blocks, it may serve the Whigs well to saturate those areas with Spanish language flyers. Regardless, if the Hispanic population is registered to vote at lower levels than the overall population, it would serve all of the parties well to tap this potential pool of unregistered voters.