TIMOTHY J. CONSIDINE
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The Pennsylvania State University
Department of Energy & Geo-Environmental Engineering
125 Hosler Building
University Park, PA 16802
http://www.personal.psu.edu/cpw
Phone: (814) 863-0810 w Fax: (814) 865-3248 w Email: cpw@psu.edu
EDUCATION
| 1977-1981 | Ph.D., Natural resource economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY |
| 1975-1977 | M.S., Agricultural economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN |
| 1971-1975 | B.A., Economics (with honors), Loyola University, Chicago, IL |
EXPERIENCE
Positions held:
| 2003-present | Professor, Natural Resource Economics, Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA |
| 1986-2003 | Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental, & Mineral Economics, Department of Energy, Environmental, & Mineral Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA |
| 1983-1986 | Economist, Economics & Policy, Bank of America, San Francisco, CA |
| 1981-1983 | Associate Analyst, Natural Resources and Commerce Division, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Washington, DC |
Visiting positions held:
| 2002 | Visiting Fellow, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC |
| 1994-1995 | Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, American University, Washington, DC |
| 1993-1994 | Director and Professor, Australian Centre for Mineral and Energy Economics, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia |
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
| Research: | Energy economics, environmental economics, industrial organization, applied econometrics. |
| Teaching: | Undergraduate:Energy Economics and History & Economics of Oil Industry Graduate: Energy and Mineral Project Investment Evaluation. |
HONORS AND AWARDS
| American Statistical Association/Energy Information Administration Fellowship, 2003 | |
| Gilbert F. White Postdoctoral Fellowship, Resources for the Future, 2002 | |
| MICASU Faculty Fellowship, The Pennsylvania State University, 2000-2003 | |
| National Science Foundation/Lucent Industrial Ecology Fellowship, 1997 | |
| Department of Interior Young Scholar Award, 1991 | |
| Silbert Award for Best U.S. Economic Forecast, 1986 | |
| U.S. Congressional Budget Office Outstanding Service Award, 1983 | |
| Honorable Mention, Ph.D. Dissertation, American Association of Agricultural Economics, 1982 |
PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS
Refereed journal articles:
| “Peak oil in a carbon constrained world,” International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics (pdf link to full text) | |
| “The environment as a factor of production,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 52, 3, (2006), 645-662. | |
| “Is the strategic petroleum reserve our ace in the hole?” The Energy Journal, 27, 3, (2006), 91-112. |
|
| “The value of hurricane forecasts to oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, 43, 9, (2004), 328-336. | |
| “Markup pricing in petroleum refining: A multiproduct framework (abstract, pdf link to full text),” International Journal of Industrial Organization 19, 10 (2001), 1499-1526. | |
| “Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations (abstract),” with D.F. Larson, Energy Economics 23, 5 (2001), 533-548. | |
| “Risk premiums on inventory assets: The case of crude oil and natural gas (abstract),” with D. Larson, Journal of Futures Markets 21, 2 (2001), 109-126. | |
| “Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product markets (abstract),” with Eunnyeong Heo, Energy Economics 22, 5 (2000), 527-548. | |
| “The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions (abstract),” Resource and Energy Economics 22, 4 (2000), 295-312. | |
| “Cost structures for fossil fuel-fired electric power generation (abstract),” The Energy Journal 21, 2 (2000), 83-104. | |
| “Inventories under joint production: An empirical analysis of petroleum refining (abstract),” The Review of Economics and Statistics 79, 3 (1997), 493-502. | |
| “An empirical analysis of exposure-based regulation to abate toxic air pollution (abstract),” with Marakovits, Donita M., Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 31, 2 (1996), 337-351. | |
| “Technological change under residual risk regulation (abstract),” Environmental & Resource Economics 3 (1993), 15-33. | |
| “A short-run model of petroleum product supply (abstract),” The Energy Journal 13, 2 (1992), 61-91. | |
| “Economic and technological determinants of the material intensity of use (abstract),” Land Economics 67, 1 (1991), 99-115. | |
| “Symmetry constraints and variable returns to scale in logit models (abstract),” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 8, 3 (1990), 347-353. | |
| “Estimating the demand for energy and natural resource inputs: Trade-offs in global properties (partial text),” Applied Economics 21 (1989), 931-945. | |
| “Separability, functional form, and regulatory policy in models of interfuel substitution (abstract),” Energy Economics 11, 2 (1989), 82-94. | |
| “Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic performance (abstract),” Contemporary Policy Issues VI, 3 (1988), 83-96. | |
| “Interfuel substitution and cyclical volatility in U.S. natural gas markets (partial text),” The Journal of Energy and Development 10, 1 (1985), 97-109. | |
| “The use of linear logit models for dynamic input demand systems,” with T.D. Mount, The Review of Economics and Statistics LXVI, 3 (1984), 434-443. | |
| “A regional econometric analysis of energy prices and economic activity (abstract),” with T.D. Mount, Environment and Planning A 15 (1983), 1027-1041. |
Other refereed publications:
| “The Transformation of the North American Steel Industry: Drivers, Prospects, and Vulnerabilities,” American Iron and Steel Institute, www.steel.org, 54 pages, April 2005. | |
| “Can Electricity Restructuring Survive? Lessons from California and Pennsylvania,” in Electric Choices: Deregulation and the Future of Electric Power, Andrew Kleit, editor, The Independent Institute, 2007, with Andrew Kleit. | |
| Retooling manufacturing: Bridging design, materials, and production, coauthor, National Research Council, The National Academies Press, (2004). | |
| “Climate change: Impact on the demand for energy,” Encyclopedia of Energy, Cutler J. Cleveland, editor, Elsevier Science, (2004), 393-400. | |
| “Industrial ecology: Challenges and opportunities for economics,” in T. Tietenberg, and H. Folmer, editors, International Yearbook of Environmental and Resource Economics, 2001, 90-122. | |
| Understanding natural gas price decontrol, Congressional Budget Office, January 1983, Chapters 2 & 4. | |
| Natural gas wellhead pricing policies: Implications for the federal budget, Congressional Budget Office, April 1983, 1-53. |
Other publications:
| The U.S. Chemical Industry at Risk: Climate Change Legislation and Higher Natural Gas Prices, Chemical Week, August 2007. | |
| “Systematic Bias in EIA Oil Price Forecasts: Concerns and Consequences.” with F. Clemente World Oil, August 2007. | |
| “Betting on Bad Numbers: How EIA Forecasts for Natural Gas MarketsContain Systematic Bias,” with F. Clemente Public Utilities Fortnightly, forthcoming, July 2007. | |
| Technologies to Reduce, Capture and Store Carbon Dioxide Emissions, National Coal Council, Report to the U.S. Secretary of Energy, forthcoming July 2007, Chapters 1 & 5. | |
| Coal: The Energy Future, with Frank Clemente, et. al, National Coal Council Report to the U.S. Secretary of Energy, April 2006. | |
| “Oil markets and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” Regulation. The Cato Institute, May/June 2005, 18-25. | |
| “A real options analysis of hydrogen research and development,” conference paper, 15th National Hydrogen Conference, Hollywood, CA, April 2004. | |
| “Understanding the world crude oil market,” Middle East Geopolitics, Al Dosari International, February 2004, 7-33. | |
| “Political economy of natural gas: Strategic implications for the Middle East,” Middle East Geopolitic, Al Dosari International, February 2004, 61-88. | |
| “Green economics,” Research Penn State, Vol. 23, Issue 2, May 2002. | |
| “Economies of scale and asset values in power production (partial text),” The Electricity Journal, December 1999, 37-42. | |
| “The costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls,” Environmental Policy Modeling (Boston, MA: Kluwer Publishing), 1994, 103-122. | |
| “Technical change, relative prices and intermaterial substitution,” in International Commodity Market Models, Guvenen, O., W.C. Labys, and J.B. Lesourd, Chapman and Hall, London, (1991), 139-156. | |
| “Recent trends in material consumption: The role of technology and economics (abstract),” Materials and Society, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1990, 167-182. | |
| “Energy demand models: Global properties and dynamic adjustments,” John G. Rowse, ed., World Energy Markets: Coping with Instability, July 1987, 627-637. | |
| “Lessons from the recent turmoil in energy markets,” Earth and Mineral Sciences, Vol. 56, No. 4, Summer 1987, 60-64. | |
| “Atrophy in metal demand?,” Materials and Society, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1987, 529-538. | |
| “Why is U.S. productivity growing so slowly?” U.S. Economic Report, World Information Services, Bank of America, July 1986, 2-5. | |
| “Investment spending: A new era?” U.S. Economic Report, World Information Services, Bank of America, June 1985, 2-4. | |
| “Federal budget deficits: Economic impacts and alternative solutions,” California Corporate Report, Bank of America, Winter 1985, 1-5. | |
| “Energy pricing, employment and economic growth: An econometric analysis of the New York state economy,” A. E. Research 84, no. 13, Cornell University, July 1984, 1-29. | |
| “An econometric analysis of the effects of a fuel shortfall on state level economic activity,” in A guidebook for analysis of state level economic impacts of an energy shortfall, Forrest Gunnison, ed., Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/CNSV-TM-70, 1981, 36-62. | |
| “Planning models for the assessment of utility applications of solar electric technologies,” Chapter 4, in Economic assessment of grid-connected solar electric technologies: A review of methods, S.E.R.I., November 1979, 55-89. |
Book reviews:
| “The Economics of Industrial Ecology,” edited by Jeroen van den Bergh and Marco A. Janssen, The Journal of Industrial Ecology, (forthcoming). | |
| “Economic Growth, Material Flows And the Environment,” by Rutger Hoekstra, The Journal of Industrial Ecology, (forthcoming). | |
| “Demand, prices and the refining industry,” by Robert Bacon, et al., The Energy Journal, December 1990. | |
| “Money to burn? The high costs of energy subsidies,” by Mark Kosmo, Journal of Energy and Development, Autumn 1988. | |
| “The econometrics of energy demand: a survey of applications,” by William A. Donnelly, The Energy Journal, January 1988. | |
| “Consumer durable choice and the demand for electricity,” by Jeffrey A. Dubin, The Energy Journal, January 1988. |
Reports to project sponsors:
| Considine, T.J. R. Entler, and F. Clemente, “The Economic Impacts of Fortuna Energy, Inc.” December 2006. | |
| “The value of hurricane forecast information to energy producers in the Gulf of Mexico,” with C. Jablonowski, B. Posner, and C. Bishop, Final report to National Science Foundation, ATM-9908963, January 2003. | |
| “Comparing electricity deregulation in California and Pennsylvania: Implications for the Appalachian Region (partial text, pdf link to full text),” with A. Kleit, final report to Appalachian Regional Commission, ARC contract number CO-12884, February 2002, 114 pgs. | |
| “The environment and new technology adoption in the U.S. steel industry,” with C. Jablonowski, and D. Considine, final report to National Science Foundation and Lucent Technologies, BES-9727296, May 2001, 120 pgs. | |
| “The industrial ecology of particulate materials, with Frank J. DeNapoli M. Lanagan, H. Lewis, M. Silsbee, B. Scheetz E. Snyder, final report to National Science Foundation, MUSE-0223958, November 2004. |
Working papers and manuscripts:
| “Evaluating Forecasts of Natural Gas Markets: Implications for Modeling and Policy Analysis,” June 2007. | |
| “New technology Assessment and Material Flows: A Case Study of Steel production,” February 2008. | |
| Clemente, Frank, and T. Considine, “Coal: China’s Energy Imperative,” September 2006. | |
| Clemente, Frank, and T. Considine, “Out of Poverty: The Role of Coal in Economic Development.” | |
| T. Considine, “Arizona’s Energy Future: The Economic Impacts of Alternative Renewable Energy Paths.” | |
| T. Considine, D. Larson, and M. Hassan “The Role of Carbon Regulation in Inter-fuel substitution in the European Electricity Industry.” |
FUNDED RESEARCH
| “Moving to Sustainability: Improving and Valuing Materials Flow of theMetal Casting Industry,” National Science Foundation, co-principal investigator with principal investigator F. Cannon and co-principals, Frank Clemente, Robert C. Voigt, Sridhar Komarneni, August 2005 – September 2009, $1,247,250. | |
| “Nanotechnology and its Publics” National Science Foundation, co-principal investigator with principal investigator R. Geiger and co-principal P. Hallacher, July 15, 2004-June 30, 2005, $199,887 | |
| “Future Fill,” Rustwell LLC co-principal investigator with B. Scheetz , & Civil & Environmental Engineering, January 2004-December 2004, $75,000. | |
| “Multilevel cycles, models, and scenarios for the iron-alloying elements,” National Science Foundation, Materials Use, Science, Engineering, and Society (MUSES), co-principal investigator with T. Graedel, principal investigator R. Lefset (co-pi), R. Gordon (co-pi) (Yale University), September 2003 to September 2007, $177,945 (Penn State share). | |
| “An empirical analysis of markets for tradable pollution permits,” The World Bank,September 2002 to October 2003, $30,000. | |
| “The industrial ecology of particulate materials,” National Science Foundation, Materials Use, Science, Engineering, and Society (MUSES), principal investigator with co-principals M. Silsbee, F. DeNapoli, M. Lanagan, H. Lewis, B. Scheetz, and E. Snyder (The Pennsylvania State University), August 2002 to August 2004, $110,000. | |
| “Empirical models of SO2 permit banking,” The World Bank, March 2001 to September 2001, $20,000. | |
| “The impacts of electricity deregulation on the Appalachian region,” co-principal investigator with A. Kleit, Appalachian Regional Commission, June 2000 to May 2001, $89,000. | |
| “The efficiency gains from probabilistic weather forecasts: A case study of oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico,” co-principal investigator with C. Bishop, Office of Atmospheric Research, National Science Foundation, April 2000 to October 2001, $118,000. | |
| “Regional energy demand forecasting,” principal investigator, AIG Trading, June to October 1997, $25,000. | |
| “Uncertainty and the price of crude oil reserves,” principal investigator, International Economics Division, The World Bank, July 1994 to July 1995, $30,000. | |
| “Technology and environmental impacts of steel production in China,” principal investigator, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia, June 1994 to June 1995, $20,000. | |
| “Modeling short-run energy markets,” principal investigator, Energy Information Administration (EIA), September 1994 to August 1995, $25,000. | |
| “A monthly model of natural gas markets for EIA's short term integrated forecasting system,” principal investigator, EIA, January to October 1993, $30,000. | |
| “Regional gasoline demand models for EIA's short term integrated forecasting system,” principal investigator, EIA, March to August 1993, $30,000. | |
| “Clean air proposals and steel markets: An integrated analysis,” principal investigator, Department of the Interior, June 1990 to June 1992, $15,000. | |
| “Price and inventory behavior in refined petroleum product markets,” principal investigator, Energy Information Administration, January to December 1991, $20,000. | |
| “The supply and demand for steel in the United States,” principal investigator, Mining and Mineral Research Institute, June 1989 to October 1989, $50,000. | |
| “Production technology and dynamic adjustments in the derived demand for inputs,” principal investigator, EMS Faculty Research Fund, July 1986 to July 1987, $2,000. |
OTHER RESEARCH SUPPORT
| American Iron and Steel Institute, Applied economic research. | |
| Peabody Energy, Political economy of world energy markets and economic impacts of coal energy conversion. |
|
| Fortuna Energy, Inc., Economic impacts of natural gas development in the Trenton Black River Formation |
CONSULTING
| The Communications Institute — Forecasting Arizona Energy Sector | |
| Peabody Energy — Local economic impacts of carbon regulation | |
| The World Bank — economics of carbon permit & offset trading. | |
| Eco Energy Ltd.—energy demand forecasting for Israel. | |
| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—electricity pricing issues. | |
| ICF Consulting/U.S. Department of Energy—strategic petroleum reserve. | |
| McKinsey & Company—steel market analysis. | |
| Pennsylvania Propane Association—market outlook. | |
| Pennsylvania Attorney General—gasoline pricing and electricity mergers. | |
| Freehill, Hollingdale, & Page—merger analysis & contract issues. | |
| U.S. Department of Energy—model review. | |
| Bechtel Corporation—new technology adoption in metals industries. | |
| Australian Industry Commission—advanced materials. | |
| Normandy Poseidon—gold mine feasibility study. |
INVITED WORKSHOPS
| “Evaluating Forecasts of Natural Gas Markets: Implications for Modeling and Policy Analysis,” International Energy Workshop, Stanford University, June 2007. | |
| “Annual steel advisory meeting,” Yale University, New Haven. CT, March 2004 & March 2005. | |
| “Environmentally benign manufacturing,” National Science Foundation, Birmingham, AL, January 2003. | |
| “The economic value of improved weather and climate information,” National Aeronautical and Space Administration, Space Policy Institute, The George Washington University, March 2002. | |
| “Reinventing the use of materials,” National Science Foundation, Princeton University, February 2002. | |
| “Industrial transformation,” International Human Dimensions Programme, Boston University, October 1998. |
PROFESSIONAL SERVICE AND APPOINTMENTS
| Review Panel, National Science Foundation, Electric Power Networks Efficiency and Security Review Panel, April 2003. | |
| National Research Council, National Academies, Panel on bridging design and manufacturing, 2002 to 2004. | |
| Science Advisory Board, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, March 2001. | |
| Green Engineering Theme Committee, Environmental Consortium, The Pennsylvania State University, September 2000. | |
| Associate Editor, Energy Economics, September 2000. | |
| National Science Foundation & Environmental Protection Agency, Technology for a Sustainable Environment, Industrial Ecology Review Panel, December 1999. | |
| Chair, Independent Review Panel, Life-Cycle Stressor Effects Assessment Framework, Steel Recycling Institute, January 1999. |
PRESENTATIONS
| “Evaluating Forecasts of Natural Gas Markets: Implications for Modeling and Policy Analysis,” International Energy Workshop, Stanford University, June 2007. | |
| “The economics of peak oil,” invited, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Penn State University, February 2006. | |
| “The transformation of the North American steel industry,” invited, Capitol Hill Club, Washington, DC, April 2005. | |
| “The environment as a factor of production,” invited, Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Workshop, Boulder, Colorado, July 2003. | |
| “Economic analysis of pollution permit trading,” invited, Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, April 2003. | |
| “Economic and environmental metrics in new technology assessment,” invited, Department of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology, April 2003. | |
| “Economic models of material flows,” invited, Yale University Workshop on Iron Alloys, February 2003. | |
| “Industrial ecology: Implications for environmental economics,” invited, Portland State University, January 2003. | |
| “The economics of industrial ecology,” Millennium lecture series, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, November 2002. | |
| “The value of hurricane forecast information to energy producers in the Gulf of Mexico,” Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, October 2002. | |
| “The environment as a factor of production,” Electricity Working Group, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC, October 2002. | |
| “The value of climate information to the energy sector,” Space Policy Institute, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, March 2002. | |
| “Inventories and market power in the world crude oil market,” International Society of Inventory Research, Atlanta, GA, January 2002. | |
| “Industrial ecology of steel,” invited presentation, Helsinki Symposium on Material Flows and Industrial Ecology, Helsinki, Finland, August 2000. | |
| “Integrating life cycle assessment and economic analysis,” invited presentation, Bell Labs, Murray Hill, NJ, February 2000. | |
| “Markup pricing in petroleum refining,” invited presentation, Society for Inventory Research, AAAS, Boston, MA, January 2000. | |
| “The economics of propane,” invited talk, Pennsylvania Propane Association, July 1998. | |
| “The firm and the environment,” invited lecturer, two day workshop on environmental issues, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, November 1998. | |
| “Suboptimal capital in electric power generation,” invited, Advanced Workshop in Regulation and Competition, Network Industries in Transition, Vergennes, Vermont, May 1998. | |
| “A monthly econometric analysis of North American natural gas markets,” International Symposium on Economic Modeling,” Washington DC, June 1994. | |
| “Environmental issues in regional steel production and trade,” Minerals and Energy Forum, Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, Beijing, China, March 1994. | |
| “Curriculum development in mineral and energy economics,” The University of New England, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, New South Wales, Australia, September 1993. | |
| “Technological change under residual risk regulation,” Operations Research Society of America, Orlando, Florida, April 1992. | |
| “Regulatory policy issues on coke oven emissions,” Mineral Economics and Management Society, Washington, DC, March 1992. | |
| “A monthly econometric model of U.S. petroleum product markets,” Symposium on Forecasting Short-Run Energy Markets, Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC, November 1991. | |
| “An econometric model of the petroleum refining industry,” Economic Modeling Symposium, University of London, United Kingdom, July 1991. | |
| “Inventories, marginal cost, and competition in refined petroleum product markets,” The Econometric Society, Washington, DC, December 1990. | |
| “Symmetry constraints and variable returns to scale in logit models,” American Association of Agricultural Economists, Vancouver, British Columbia, August 1990. | |
| “Price and inventory behavior in refined petroleum product markets,” International Association of Energy Economists, Copenhagen, Denmark, June 1990. | |
| “Markets for recycled plastics: Lessons from secondary metals industries,” Workshop on Natural Resource Market Mechanisms, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Madison, Wisconsin, June 1990. | |
| “Economic and technological determinants of the material intensity of use,” Eastern Economic Association, Cincinnati, Ohio, March 1990. | |
| “Energy demand models: global properties and dynamic adjustments,” International Association of Energy Economists, Calgary, Alberta, July 1987. | |
| “Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic performance,” Western Economic Association, Vancouver, British Columbia, July 1987. | |
| “The macroeconomics of natural gas deregulation,” International Association of Energy Economists, Denver, Colorado, November 1982. |
RECENT PRESS INTERVIEWS
| The Communications Institute, “Energy, the Environment, and the Economy,” June 2007 (video interview for web posting). | |
| Associated Press, “AK Steel Lock-Out & the World Steel Industry,” Cincinnati Bureau, September 28, 2006. | |
| Canadian Broadcasting System, “Super-Cycles in Metals Prices,” The Morning Program, September 13, 2006. | |
| New York Times, “Mining Boom Stirs Wave of Mergers and Talk of a Slump,” World Business Section, August 29, 2006. | |
| Bloomberg, “Outlook for oil prices,” August 7, 2006. | |
| Christian Science Monitor, “Impacts of Alaskan Oil Shortfall,” August 5, 2006. | |
| Toledo Blade, “Pipeline planners assure gas users prices would fall,” March 17, 2006. | |
| Bloomberg Radio, “Interview about the Alaskan Natural Gas Pipeline Project,” February 23, 2006. | |
| Investor’s Business Daily, “Steel Business Toughens Up: Industry Thriving, but it’s preparing for downturn, foreign competition,” February 6, 2006. | |
| Research Penn State, “The price of power: Can hydrogen stack up to the competition?” Fall 2005. | |
| Christian Science Monitor, “Katrina and energy prices,” August 31, 2005 | |
| The Calgary Herald, “Adviser urges sale of strategic reserve: Early advocate of stockpile doubts efficacy,” August 27, 2005. | |
| The Philadelphia Inquirer, “Paying through the hose,” August 18, 2005. | |
| Pittsburg Tribune Review, “Steel industry’s future bright, professor says,” June 30, 2005. | |
| The Associated Press, “Consolidation of the steel industry,” June 29, 2005. | |
| The Blade, “Environmentalists are wary of proposed steel coking plant near Toledo, Ohio,” February 27, 2004. | |
| Slate Magazine, “Why not import more Non-OPEC oil,” September 26, 2003. |
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