Bryan Grenfell

Bryan

Alumni Professor of Biology
The Pennsylvania State University
Biology Department, 208 Mueller Lab
University Park, PA 16803

Tel: (+1) 814 865 6080

email: grenfell@psu.edu


Research

For details of my research, see the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics website

Publications

If you are searching for a journal article and have access to Web of Science, search for "grenfell b*" in the General Search. From the resulting list, you will be able to click through to abstracts, mark and download selected references, etc.

If you do not have access to Web of Science, published articles are also listed below, as text only. Books and book chapters are highlighted with a symbol.

Shortcuts: 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1979 to 1989

2008

Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Bharti N, Conlan AJK, Bjornstad ON, Guerin PJ, Djibo A & Grenfell BT (2008) The dynamics of measles in sub- Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684.

Grais RF, Conlan AC, Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Le Menach A, Bjornstad ON & Grenfell BT (2008) Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5(18): 67-74.

2007

Bansal S, Grenfell BT, Meyers LA (2007) When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4 (16): 879-891.

Simonsen L, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Dushoff J, Jennings L, Smit M, Macken C, Hata M, Gog J, Miller MA & Holmes EC (2007) The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring adamantane resistance. Molecular Biology and Evolution 24(8): 1811-1820.

Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Deardon R, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Woolhouse MEJ, Brooks SP & Grenfell BT (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4 (13): 235-241.

Conlan AJK & Grenfell BT (2007) Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles. Proc. Roy. Soc Lond B 274(1614): 1133-1141.

Viboud C, Miller MA, Grenfell BT, Bjornstad ON & Simonsen L (2007) Air travel and the spread of influenza: Important caveats (correction: vol 3, pg 0, 2007). PLOS Medicine 4(1): 198-198.

Tildesley MJ, Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Deardon R, Brooks SP, Woolhouse MEJ, Grenfell BT & Keeling MJ (2007) Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease — Reply. Nature 445(7128): E12-E13.

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2006

Brown SP, Cornell SJ, Sheppard M, Grant AJ, Maskell DJ, Grenfell BT & Mastroeni P (2006) Intracellular demography and the dynamics of Salmonella enterica infections. PLoS Biology 4(11): e349.

Grais RF, Ferrari MJ, Dubray C, Bjornstad ON, Grenfell BT, Djibo A, Fermon F, Guerin PJ. (2006) Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 100: 867-73.

Koelle K, Cobey S Grenfell B & Pascual M (2006) Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science 314: 1898-1903.

Kuiken T, Holmes EC, McCauley J, Rimmelzwaan GF, Williams CS, & Grenfell BT (2006) Host species barriers to influenza virus infections. Science 312: 394-397

Grenfell B.T. Williams, C.S., Bjørnstad, O.B. & Banavar, J.R. (2006) Simplifying biological complexity. Nature Physics, 2: 212-214.

Restif O & Grenfell B (2006) Vaccination and the dynamics of immune evasion. Journal of the Royal Society Interface.

Savill N.J., Shaw D.J., Deardon, R. Tildesley M.J., Keeling M.J., Woolhouse M.E.J., Brooks S.P. & Grenfell B.T. (2006) Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research, 2:3

Savill N.J., Shaw D.J., Deardon, R. Tildesley M.J., Keeling M.J., Woolhouse M.E.J., Brooks S.P. & Grenfell B.T. (2006) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Tildesley M.J., Savill N.J., Shaw D.J., Deardon R., Brooks S.P., Woolhouse M.E.J., Grenfell B.T. & Keeling M.J. (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature, 440: 83-86.

Viboud C., Bjørnstad O.N., Smith D.L., Simonson L., Miller M.A. & Grenfell B.T. (2006) Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451.

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2005

Broutin, H., Mantilla-Beniers, N.B., Simondon, F., Aaby, P, Grenfell, B. T., Guegan, J.F. & Rohani P (2005) Epidemiological impact of vaccination on the dynamics of two childhood diseases in rural Senegal. Microbes and Infection 7: 593-599

Grenfell, B. T. & Bjørnstad, O. N. (2005) Sexually transmitted disease - epidemic cyling and immunity. Nature 433, 366-367.

Holmes, E.C., Taubenberger, J.K., Grenfell, B. T. (2005) Heading off an Influenza pandemic. Science, 309: 989

Edward C. Holmes, Elodie Ghedin, Naomi Miller, Jill Taylor, Yiming Bao, Kirsten St. George, Bryan T. Grenfell, Steven L. Salzberg, Claire M. Fraser, David J. Lipman, Jeffery K. Taubenberger (2005) Whole-genome analysis of human Influenza A virus reveals multiple persistent lineages and reassortment among recent H3N2 viruses. PLoS Biology 3(9)

Xia, Y. C., Gog, J. R. & Grenfell, B. T. (2005) Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time-series: influenza as a case study. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C, Applied Statistics 54, 659-672.

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2004

Braisher, T. L., Gemmell, N. J., Grenfell, B. T. & Amos, W. (2004) Host isolation and patterns of genetic variability in three populations of Teladorsagia from sheep. International Journal For Parasitology 34, 1197-1204.

Broutin, H., Rohani, P., Guegan, J. F., Grenfell, B. T. & Simondon, F. (2004) Loss of imunity to pertussis in a rural community in Senegal. Vaccine 22, 1587-1587.

Cornell, S. J., Isham, V. S. & Grenfell, B. T. (2004) Stochastic and spatial dynamics of nematode parasites in farmed ruminants. Proceedings Of The Royal Society Of London Series B-Biological Sciences 271, 1243-1250.

Glass, K. & Grenfell, B. T. (2004) Waning immunity and subclinical measles infections in England. Vaccine 22, 4110-4116.

Glass, K., Kappey, J. & Grenfell, B.T. (2004) The effect of heterogeneity in measles vaccination on population immunity. Epidemiology and infection 132: 675-683.

Grenfell, B. T., Pybus, O. G., Gog, J. R., Wood, J. L. N., Daly, J. M., Mumford, J. A. & Holmes, E. C. (2004) Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens. Science 303, 327-332.

Hallett, T. B., Coulson, T., Pilkington, J. G., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Pemberton, J. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (2004) Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. Nature 430, 71-75.

book chapter Keeling, M. J., Bjørnstad, O. & Grenfell, B. T. (2004) Metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases. pp. 415-446 In Ecology, genetics and evolution. Burlington MA: Elsevier.

Park, A. W., Wood, J. L. N., Daly, J. M., Newton, J. R., Glass, K., Henley, W., Mumford, J. A. & Grenfell, B. T. (2004) The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Proceedings Of The Royal Society Of London Series B-Biological Sciences 271, 1547-1555.

Stenseth, N. C., Chan, K. S., Tavecchia, G., Coulson, T., Mysterud, A., Clutton-Brock, T. & Grenfell, B. (2004) Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 271, 1985-1993.

Xia, Y. C., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T. (2004) Measles metapopulation dynamics: A gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics. American Naturalist 164, 267-281.

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2003

Cornell, S. J., Isham, V. S., Smith, G. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Spatial parasite transmission,drug resistance and the spread of rare genes. PNAS 100.

Ferguson, N. M., Keeling, M. J., Edmunds, W. J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B. T., Anderson, R. M. & Leach, S. (2003) Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425, 681-685.

Glass, K. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Antibody dynamics in childhood diseases: Waning and boosting of immunity and the impact of vaccination. Journal of Theoretical Biology 221, 121-131.

Glass, K., Xia, Y. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Interpreting time-series analyses for continuous-time biological models-measles as a case study. Journal of Theoretical Biology 223, 19-25.

Gog, J. R., Rimmelzwaan, G. F., Osterhaus, A. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants of influenza A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 100, 11143-11147.

Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., May, R. M., Davies, G. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease. Nature 421, 136-142.

Leung, B. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) A spatial stochastic model simulating a scabies epidemic and coyote population dynamics. Ecological Modelling 166, 41-52.

Ovaskainen, O. T. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Mathematical tools for planning effective intervention scenarios for sexually transmitted diseases. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 30, 388-394.

Park, A. W., Wood, J. L. N., Newton, J. R., Daly, J., Mumford, J. A. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza. Vaccine 21, 2862-2870.

Rohani, P., Green, C. J., Mantilla-Beniers, N. B. & Grenfell, B. T. (2003) Ecological interference between fatal diseases. Nature 422, 885-888.

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2002

Bjørnstad, O. N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Dynamics of measles epidemics. I. estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72, 169-184.

Brown, S. P., Hochberg, M. E. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Does multiple infection select for raised virulence? Trends in Microbiology 10, 401-405.

Finkenstädt, B. F., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3, 493-510.

Glass, K., Wood, J. L. N., Mumford, J. A., Jesset, D. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Modelling Equine Influenza 1: A stochastic model of within-yard epidemics. Epidemiology and Infection 128, 491-502.

Gog, J. R. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99, 17209-17214.

Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Rivers dam waves of rabies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99, 3365-3367.

Grenfell, B. T., Bjornstad, O. N. & Finkenstädt, B. F. (2002) Dynamics of measles epidemics. II. Scaling noise, determinism and predictability with the time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 72, 185-202

Hudson, P. J., Dobson, A. P., Cattadori, I. M., Newborn, D., Haydon, D. T., Shaw, D. J., Benton, T. G. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 357, 1259-1271

Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 269, 335-343.

Rohani, P., Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (2002) The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. American Naturalist 159, 469-481.

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2001

Bjørnstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Noisy clockwork: Time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293, 638-643.

Brown, S.P. & Grenfell, B. T. (2001) An unlikely partnership: parasites, concomitant immunity and host defence. Proc Roy Soc B 268, 2543-2549

Brown, S.P., Loot, G., Grenfell, B. T. & Guegan, J.F. (2001) Host manipulation by Ligula intestinalis: accident or adaptation? Parasitology 123, 519-529.

Chapman, A. P., Brook, B. W., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Grenfell, B. T. & Frankham, R. (2001) Population viability analyses on a cycling population: a cautionary tale. Biological Conservation 97, 61-69.

Coulson, T., Catchpole, E. A., Albon, S. D., Morgan, B. J. T., Pemberton, J. M., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Crawley, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science 292, 1528-1531.

book chapter Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Dynamics and epidemiological impact of microparasites. In New challenges to health: the threat of virus infection (ed. G. l. Smith, W. L. Irving, J. W. McCauley & D. J. Rowlands), pp. 33-52. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Grenfell, B. T., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Kappey, J. (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414, 716-723.

book Hudson, P. J., Rizzoli, A., Grenfell, B. T., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & Dobson, A. P. (2001) Ecology of wildlife diseases. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Keeling, M. J., Rohani, P. & Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors. Physica D 148, 317-335.

Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Shaw, D. J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, T. D., Cornell, S. J., Kappey, J., Wilesmith, J. & Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. Science 294, 813-817.

Michael, E., Ramaiah, K. D., Hoti, S. L., Barker, G., Paul, M. R., Yuvaraj, J., Das, P. K., Grenfell, B. T. & Bundy, D. A. P. (2001) Quantifying mosquito biting patterns on humans by DNA fingerprinting of bloodmeals. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 65, 722-728.

Woolhouse, M., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D., Friar, J., Matthews, L., Hughes, G., Shaw, D., Wilesmith, J., Donaldson, A., Cornell, S., Keeling, M. & Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Epidemiology - Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK. Nature 411, 258-259.

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2000

Cornell, S. J., Isham, V. S. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000) Drug-resistant parasites and aggregated infection - early- season dynamics. Journal of Mathematical Biology 41, 341-360.

Courchamp, F., Clutton-Brock, T. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000) Multipack dynamics and the Allee effect in the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus. Animal Conservation 3, 277-285.

Courchamp, F., Grenfell, B. T. & Clutton-Brock, T. H. (2000) Impact of natural enemies on obligately cooperative breeders. Oikos 91, 311-322

Earn, D. J. D., Rohani, P., Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000) A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 287, 667-670.

Finkenstädt, B. F. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000) Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 49, 187-205.

book chapter Grenfell, B. T. (2000) Measles as a testbed for characterising nonlinear behaviour in ecology. In Chaos from real data: the analysis of non-linear dynamics in short ecological time series, vol. (ed. J. N. Perry & R. Smith): Academic Press.

Grenfell, B. T., Finkenstädt, B. F., Wilson, K., Coulson, T. N. & Crawley, M. J. (2000) Ecology - Nonlinearity and the Moran Effect. Nature 406, 847.

Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000) Individual-based perspectives on R0. Journal of Theoretical Biology 203, 51-61.

Rohani, P., Earn, D. J. D. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000a) Impact of immunisation on pertussis transmission in England and Wales. Lancet 355, 285-286.

Rohani, P., Earn, D. J. D. & Grenfell, B. T. (2000b) Pertussis transmission in England and Wales - Reply. Lancet 355, 1553-1554.

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1999

Alexander, N. D. E. & Grenfell, B. T. (1999) The effect of pregnancy on Wuchereria bancrofti microfilarial load in humans. Parasitology 119, 151-156.

Courchamp, F., CluttonBrock, T. & Grenfell, B. T. (1999) Inverse density dependence and the Allee effect. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 14, 405-410.

Courchamp, F., Grenfell, B. T. & Clutton Brock, T. (1999) Population dynamics of obligate cooperators. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 266, 557-563.

Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1999) Stochastic dynamics and a power law for measles variability. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond 354, 769-776.

Kleczkowski, A. & Grenfell, B. T. (1999) Mean-field-type equations for spread of epidemics: the 'small world' model. Physica A 274, 355-360.

Rohani, P., Earn, D. J. D. & Grenfell, B. T. (1999) Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science 286, 968-971.

Smith, G., Cornell, S., Isham, V. & Grenfell, B. T. (1999) Anthelmintic resistance revisited: under-dosing, chemotherapeutic strategies and mating probabilities. International Journal of Parasitology 29, 77-91.

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1998

Alexander, N. D. E., Kazura, J. W., Bockarie, M. J., Perry, R. T., Dimber, Z. B., Grenfell, B. T. & Alpers, M. P. (1998) Parental infection confounded with local infection intensity as risk factors for childhood microfilaraemia in bancroftian filariasis. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 92, 23-24.

Arneberg, P., Skorping, A., Grenfell, B. T. & Read, A. F. (1998) Host densities as determinants of abundance in parasite communities. Proc. R. Soc. Lond B 265, 1283-1289.

Earn, D., Rohani, P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1998) Spatial dynamics and persistence in ecology and epidemiology. Proc. R. Soc. Lond B 265, 7-10.

Ellner, S. P., Bailey, B. A., Bobashev, G. V., Gallant, A. R., Grenfell, B. T. & Nychka, D. W. (1998) Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: combining mechanistic and statistical approaches to population modelling. American Naturalist 151, 425-440.

Finkenstädt, B. F. & Grenfell, B. T. (1998) Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales. Proc. R. Soc. Lond B 265, 211-220.

Finkenstädt, B. F., Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1998) Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 265, 753-762.

Grenfell, B. T. & Bolker, B. M. (1998) Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation. Ecology Letters 1, 63-70.

Grenfell, B. T. & Finkenstädt, B. F. (1998) Seasonality, stochasticity and population cycles. Researches On Population Ecology 40, 141-143.

Grenfell, B. T., Wilson, K., Finkenstädt, B. F., Coulson, T. N., Murray, S., Albon, S. D., Pemberton, J. M., Clutton-Brock, T. H. & Crawley, M. J. (1998) Noise and determinism in synchronised sheep dynamics. Nature 394, 674-677.

Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1998) Effect of variability in infection period on the persistence and spatial spread of infectious diseases. Mathematical Biosciences 147, 207-226.

Michael, E., Grenfell, B. T., Isham, V. S., Denham, D. A. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1998) Modelling variability in lymphatic filariasis: macrofilarial dynamics in the Brugia pahangi cat model. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 265, 155-165.

Rohani, P., Earn, D. J. D., Finkenstädt, B. F. & Grenfell, B. T. (1998) The dynamics of epidemiological interference between measles and pertussis. Proc. R. Soc. Lond B 265, 2033-2041.

Shaw, D. J., Grenfell, B. T. & Dobson, A. P. (1998) Patterns of parasite aggregation in wildlife host populations. Parasitology 117, 597-610.

Swinton, J., Harwood, J., Grenfell, B. T. & Gilligan, C. A. (1998) Persistence thresholds for phocine distemper virus infection in harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) metapopulations. Journal of Animal Ecology 67, 54-68.

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1997

Clutton-Brock, T. H., Illius, A. W., Wilson, K., Grenfell, B. T., MacColl, A. D. C. & Albon, S. D. (1997) Stability and instability in ungulate populations: an empirical analysis. American Naturalist 149, 195-219.

Grenfell, B. T. & Harwood, J. (1997) (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 12, 395-99.

Keeling, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1997) Disease extinction and community size: modeling the persistence of measles. Science 275, 65-67.

Levin, S. A., Grenfell, B. T., Hastings, A. & Perelson, A. S. (1997) Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystem science. Science 275, 334-343.

White, K. A. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1997) Regulation of complex dynamics by a macroparasite. Journal of Theoretical Biology 186, 81-89.

Wilson, K. & Grenfell, B. T. (1997) Generalised linear modelling for parasitologists. Parasitology Today 13, 33-38.

Wilson, K. & Grenfell, B. T. (1997) Generalized linear modelling for parasitologists: reply. Parasitology Today 13, 162-162.

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1996

Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (1996) Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and dynamics of measles epidemics. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 93, 12648-12653.

Michael, E., Bundy, D. A. P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1996) Reassessing the global prevalence and distribution of lymphatic filariasis. Parasitology 112, 409-428.

Srividya, A., Das, P. K., Subramanian, S., Ramaiah, K. D., Grenfell, B. T., Michael, E. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1996) Past exposure and the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis infection in young children. Epidemiology and Infection 117, 195-201.

Vanamail, P., Ramaiah, K. D., Pani, S. P., Das, P. K., Grenfell, B. T. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1996) Estimation of the fecund life-span of Wuchereria bancrofti in an endemic area. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 90, 119-121.

White, K. A. J., Grenfell, B. T., Hendry, R. J., Lejeune, O. & Murray, J. D. (1996) Effect of seasonal host reproduction on host-macroparasite dynamics. Mathematical Biosciences 137, 79-99.

Wilson, K., Grenfell, B. T. & Shaw, D. J. (1996) Analysis of aggregated parasite distributions: a comparison of methods. Functional Ecology 10, 592-601.

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1995

Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (1995) Space, persistence and the dynamics of measles epidemics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 348, 309-320.

Das, P. K., Subramanian, S., Manoharan, A., Ramaiah, K. D., Vanamail, P., Grenfell, B. T., Bundy, D. A. P. & Michael, E. (1995) Frequency-distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in the vector host in relation to human host - evidence for density- dependence. Acta Tropica 60, 159165.

book chapter Grenfell, B. T., Bolker, B. M. & Kleczkowski, A. (1995a) Demography, seasonality and the dynamics of measles in developed countries. In Epidemic models: their structure and relation to data (ed. D. Mollison). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Grenfell, B. T., Bolker, B. M. & Kleczkowski, A. (1995b) Seasonality and extinction in chaotic metapopulations. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 259, 97-103.

book chapter Grenfell, B. T., Dietz, K. & Roberts, M. G. (1995) Modelling the immuno-epidemiology of macroparasites in wildlife host populations. In Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Natural Populations (ed. B. T. Grenfell & A. P. Dobson), pp. 362-383. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

book Grenfell, B. T. & Dobson, A. P. (ed.) (1995) Ecology of infectious diseases in natural populations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Grenfell, B. T. & Gulland, F. M. D. (1995) Introduction - ecological impact of parasitism on wildlife host populations. Parasitology 111, S3-S14.

book chapter Grenfell, B. T., Kleczkowski, A., Ellner, S. & Bolker, B. M. (1995) Nonlinear forecasting in ecology and epidemiology: measles as a case study. In Chaos and forecasting (ed. H. Tong). Singapore: World Scientific.

Grenfell, B. T., Kleczkowski, A., Gilligan, C. A. & Bolker, B. M. (1995) Spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear dynamics and chaos in infectious diseases. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 4, 160-183.

Grenfell, B. T., Wilson, K., Isham, V. S., Boyd, H. E. G. & Dietz, K. (1995) Modelling patterns of parasite aggregation in natural populations: trichostrongylid nematode-ruminant interactions as a case study. Parasitology 111, S135-S151.

Pani, S. P., Yuvaraja, J., Vanamail, P., Dhanda, V., Michael, E., Grenfell, B. T. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1995) Episodic adenolymhangitis and lymphodema in patients with bancroftian filariasis. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg 89, 72-74.

book chapter Roberts, M. G., Smith, G. & Grenfell, B. T. (1995) Mathematical models for macroparasites of wildlife. In Ecology of infectious diseases in natural populations (ed. B. T. Grenfell & A. P. Dobson), pp. 177-208. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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1994

Grenfell, B. T., Kleczkowski, A., Ellner, S. P. & Bolker, B. M. (1994) Measles as a case-study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series a- Physical Sciences and Engineering 348, 515-530.

Grenfell, B. T., May, R. M. & Tong, H. (1994) Prediction and chaos. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series a Physical Sciences and Engineering 348.

Michael, E., Grenfell, B. T. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1994) The association between microfilaraemia and disease in lymphatic filariasis. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 256, 33-40.

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1993

Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (1993) Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 251, 75-81.

Godfray, H. C. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1993) The continuing quest for chaos. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8, 43-44.

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1992

Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (1992) Are measles epidemics chaotic? Biologist 39, 107-110.

Garnett, G. P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1992a) The epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus infections: a mathematical model. Epidemiology and Infection 108, 495-511.

Garnett, G. P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1992b) The epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus: the influence of varicella on the prevalence of herpes-zoster. Epidemiology and Infection 108, 513-528.

Grenfell, B. T. (1992a) Chance and chaos in measles dynamics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 54, 383-398.

Grenfell, B. T. (1992b) Parasitism and the dynamics of ungulate grazing systems. American Naturalist 139, 907-929.

book chapter Grenfell, B. T. & Bolker, B. M. (1992) Population dynamics of measles. In Parasitic and infectious diseases: epidemiology and control (ed. M. E. Scott & G. Smith), pp. 219-234. Orlando: Academic Press.

Grenfell, B. T., Lonergan, M. E. & Harwood, J. (1992) Quantitative investigations of the epidemiology of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European common seal populations. Science of the Total Environment 115, 15-28.

Grenfell, B. T. & Michael, E. (1992) Infection and disease in lymphatic filariasis - an epidemiologic approach. Parasitology 104, S81-S90.

Grenfell, B. T., Price, O. F., Albon, S. D. & Clutton-Brock, T. H. (1992) Overcompensation and population cycles in an ungulate. Nature 355, 823-826.

Roberts, M. G. & Grenfell, B. T. (1992) The population dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants: the effect of seasonality in the free-living stages. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 9, 29-41.

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1991

book chapter Bundy, D. A. P., Grenfell, B. T. & Rajagopalan, P. K. (1991) Immunoepidemiology of lymphatic filariasis: the relationship between infection and disease. In Immunoparasitology Today (ed. C. Ash & R. B. Gallagher), pp. A71-A75. Cambridge: Elsevier Trends Journals.

Day, K. P., Grenfell, B. T., Spark, R., Kazura, J. W. & Alpers, M. P. (1991) Age-specific patterns of change in the dynamics of Wuchereria bancrofti infections in Papua-New-Guinea. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 44, 518-527.

Grenfell, B. T., Michael, E. & Denham, D. A. (1991) A model for the dynamics of human lymphatic filariasis. Parasitology Today 7, 318-323.

Pani, S. P., Balakrishnan, N., Srividya, A., Bundy, D. A. P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1991) Clinical epidemiology of bancroftian filariasis: effect of age and gender. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 85, 260-264.

Roberts, M. G. & Grenfell, B. T. (1991) The population dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants: Periodic perturbations as a model for management. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 8, 83-93.

Srividya, A., Krishnamoorthy, K., Sabesan, S., Panicker, K. N., Grenfell, B. T. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1991) Frequency distribution of Brugia malayi microfilariae in human populations. Parasitology 102, 207-212.

Srividya, A., Pani, S. P., Rajagopalan, P. K., Bundy, D. A. P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1991) The dynamics of infection and disease in bancroftian filariasis. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 85, 255-259.

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1990

Das, P. K., Manoharan, A., Srividya, A., Grenfell, B. T., Bundy, D. A. P. & Vanamail, P. (1990) Frequency distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae in human populations and its relationships with age and sex. Parasitology 101, 429-434.

Grenfell, B. T., Das, P. K., Rajagopalan, P. K. & Bundy, D. A. P. (1990) Frequency distribution of lymphatic filariasis microfilariae in human populations: population processes and statistical estimation. Parasitology 101, 417-427.

Grenfell, B. T. & Smith, G. (1990) Mathematical model for the impact of a pseudorabies epizootic on the productivity of a farrow-to-finish operation. American Journal of Veterinary Research 51, 156-164.

Guyatt, H. L., Bundy, D. A. P., Medley, G. F. & Grenfell, B. T. (1990) The relationship between the frequency distribution of Ascaris lumbricoides and the prevalence and intensity of infection in human communities. Parasitology 101, 139-143.

Harwood, J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1990) Long-term risks of recurrent seal plagues. Marine Pollution Bulletin 21, 284-287.

Smith, G. & Grenfell, B. T. (1990) Population biology of pseudorabies in swine. American Journal of Veterinary Research 51, 148-155.

Sugihara, G., Grenfell, B. T. & May, R. M. (1990) Distinguishing error from chaos in ecological time series. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 330, 235-251.

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1979-1989

Grenfell, B. T. & Anderson, R. M. (1989) Pertussis in England and Wales: an investigation of transmission dynamics and control by mass vaccination. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 236, 213-252.

Vanamail, P., Subramanian, S., Das, P. K., Pani, S. P., Rajagopalan, P. K., Bundy, D. A. P. & Grenfell, B. T. (1989) Estimation of age-specific rates of acquisition and loss of Wuchereria bancrofti infection. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 83, 689693.

Grenfell, B. T. (1988) Gastrointestinal nematode parasites and the stability and productivity of intensive ruminant grazing systems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 321, 541-563.

Anderson, R. M., Crombie, J. A. & Grenfell, B. T. (1987) The epidemiology of mumps in the UK: a preliminary study of virus transmission, herd immunity and the potential impact of immunization. Epidemiology and Infection 99, 65-84.

Grenfell, B. T., Smith, G. & Anderson, R. M. (1987a) The regulation of Ostertagia ostertagi populations in calves: the effect of past and current experience of infection on proportional establishment and parasite survival. Parasitology 95, 363-372.

Grenfell, B. T., Smith, G. & Anderson, R. M. (1987b) A mathematical model of the population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi in calves and yearlings. Parasitology 95, 389-406.

Smith, G., Grenfell, B. T. & Anderson, R. M. (1987) The regulation of Ostertagia ostertagi populations in calves: density-dependent control of fecundity. Parasitology 95, 373-388.

Smith, G., Grenfell, B. T., Anderson, R. M. & Beddington, J. (1987) Population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi and anthelmintic strategies against ostertagiasis in calves. Parasitology 95, 407-420.

Anderson, R. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (1986) Quantitative investigations of different vaccination policies for the control of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom. Journal of Hygiene (Cambridge) 96, 305-333.

Grenfell, B. T., Smith, G. & Anderson, R. M. (1986) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the mortality and migration rates of the infective larvae of Ostertagia ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora. Parasitology 92, 643-652.

Smith, G., Grenfell, B. T. & Anderson, R. M. (1986) The development and mortality of the non-infective free-living stages of Ostertagia ostertagi in the field and in laboratory culture. Parasitology 92, 471-482.

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Anderson, R. M. & Grenfell, B. T. (1985) Control of congenital rubella syndrome by mass vaccination [letter]. Lancet 2, 827-828.

Grenfell, B. T. & Anderson, R. M. (1985) The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data. Journal of Hygiene (Cambridge) 95, 419-436.

Smith, G. & Grenfell, B. T. (1985) The population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi. Parasitology Today 1, 76-81.

Anderson, R. M., Grenfell, B. T. & May, R. M. (1984) Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis. Journal of Hygiene (Cambridge) 93, 587-608.

Smith, G. & Grenfell, B. T. (1984) The influence of water temperature and pH on the survival of Fasciola hepatica miracidia. Parasitology 88, 97-104.

Grenfell, B. T. & Smith, G. (1983) Population biology and control of ostertagiasis in first year grazing calves. Proc. Soc. Vet. Epid. Prevent. Medicine 2, 54-62.

Grenfell, B. T. & Beddington, J. R. (1981) A new population model and assessment technique based on proportional maturity and recruitment, with application to the minke whales of the Southern Hemisphere. Report of the International Whaling Commission 31, 233-239.

Tillman, M. F. & Grenfell, B. T. (1980) Estimates of abundance for the Western North Pacific stock of Bryde's whales. Report of the International Whaling Commission 30, 369-373.

Beddington, J. R. & Grenfell, B. T. (1979) Risk and stability in whale harvesting. Report of the International Whaling Commission 29, 171-173.

Holt, S. J. & Grenfell, B. T. (1979) Note on Southern Hemisphere minke whale stocks and quotas. Report of the International Whaling Commission 29, 81-83.

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