Recently in House Prices Category

I said in my last post that 'I quite like reading the news'. Sure, I do, but I'm not over the moon about it. Primarily it worries me about how often journalists get casual about the real facts. Most people over here say that they 'don't believe what they read in the papers' but I reckon that is has some kind of influence on people's opinions. I mean, how much would people really care about the the 'Credit Crunch' unless that term had been made up by the media? I've noticed that a recent survey by Nationwide has said that consumer confidence in Britain is at its lowest level since the survey began in 2004. Now The relationship between the two things is difficult to correlate, but I'm pretty sure that negative attitudes get shaped by words such as 'Credit Crunch' being bandied around at every opportunity.

It's not just the Credit Crunch, or indeed the overuse of the term, that has made consumers worried either. Sometimes journalists are incredibly liberal in their summaries, especially when they do it quickly. Take this from the BBC, for instance: (It's about people being worried about house price falls)

'As a result, house prices are falling, interest rates are still relatively high and people are feeling the pinch.'

Now I wonder about the first point. Prices always fluctuate, and not much always goes up and up and up permanently. You'll always get someone who'll be willing to sell something for less than it's actually worth according to the rest of the market. Practices such as this can drive prices down by themselves - it's effectively why trading on the stock market works.

Different sources will also tell you different things about property prices, because no one has a complete set of data. A lender like the Halifax releases statistics based on the information that it holds in its lending database, so it will be different from another lender, like Nationwide. The Halifax will tell you that house prices rose in December, while Nationwide will say that they fell, the complete averages - what every lender says happened - is not revealed in the media.

In reality overall house price fluctuations are difficult to nail down at the moment. If you've been a homeowner for a year or more, then there's no reason to panic - your home has risen in value much more than inflation, so you've made money in real terms. In total, house price inflation in 2007 was 4.2% according to Nationwide (although other sources will tell you different) so this double the inflation rate - you made money on your investment.

Rather than taking what the media says and believing that house prices are 'falling' I'd read from numerous original sources that they're fluctuating. According to the Halifax, this is evidence of a 'subdued' market. I guess it's about time house prices calmed down a bit in the UK, but you'll find that across Europe, they've risen pretty drastically over the same time period.

I'm not a homeowner, and I'm not absolutely sure about buying in the UK unless I get totally settled here, but a friend was looking for mortgages and ended up taking one out with Alliance and Leicester, and he said it was the best he found.

I quite like reading the news. It normally shows you some pretty good stuff, but when I see a source quoted in the article I always want to find out more. Most recently I checked out the BBC saying that UK borrowing was worst in 10 years, and it quoted someone from Capital Economics. I did a search for them on Google and found they had some sample papers that you can read. One of them, The Housing Market Analyst, was really interesting, and it gave me way more facts than any news story could.

The report's subtitle is 'The end of the housing market boom is in sight' and it made predictions for 2007 and beyond. Now I've been reading quite a few things on what people are saying about the current British property market, and it looks like it's reached a ceiling because things have got way too expensive. Judging from what most people are saying (I wouldn't want to make my own conclusions yet!) things look like they're going to flatten out. I read from the Motley Fool's David Kuo that they're going to collapse by 20%, but this seems pretty ridiculous judging from what everyone else is saying. Capital Economics said that 'demand (is) set to cool, but not collapse' in 2007. It wasn't far wrong, because price growth was stemmed in the latter half of 2007, and it seems to agree with almost everyone else about the coming year. In the long term, it says, things are likely to decline, although not by much. I guess if you've made wild profits out of the housing boom, then you can't complain, but I feel sorry for the first time buyers who first got their own place in 2007, and consequently look as though they won't get much out of it.