Homework Week9: Summary on "Chaos Theory --- butterfly effect" by James Gleick and "Has chaos theory found any useful application in the social sciences?" by Allison Brown
Summary on "Chaos Theory --- butterfly effect":
This article introduces the theory of chaos. The theory of chaos comes from the facts that are disordered, but chaos theory is to find the underlying order from apparently random data. Chaos was first discovered by a meteorologist named Edward Lorenz in 1960 when he was try to predict what the weather might be by using computing twelve equations. He found that even very little difference in the initial value would result in a very different pattern after a certain period of time. Such phenomenon, common to chaos theory, is called "Bufferfly Effect", which means that the flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. This idea is also explained as sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Aspects of chaos show up everywhere around the world, from the currents of the ocean and the flow of blood to the branches of trees and the effects of turbulence. Chaos theory has become a part of modern science.
Summary on "Has Chaos theory found any useful application in the social sciences?":
This article introduces the chaos theory has not had an impact in the social sciences as it has in the physical sciences. The author introduces the problems of applying chaos theory into social sciences. The first problem is that determining is not easy if a time series is generated by deterministic. The second problem is that the theoretical structure in chaos is based on purely deterministic that have no or a very small amount of noise. Such models works well in physical situations but does not in most social situations. Currently, Chaos theory has been introduced to the finance area because of the abundance of data and the obvious interest in detecting unknown predictable patterns. However, in practice, fitting chaotic processes to financial data has proved problematic because definitive statements about chaos lie well beyond what the data are able to tell us.
Comparison:
These two articles introduces the basic idea of chaos theory and the possibility of applying chaos theory into social sciences. Chaos has already had a lasting effect on science, yet there is much still left to be discovered. Many scientist believe that twentieth century science will be known for only three theories: relativity, quantum mechanics, and chaos. Currently, chaos theory has received widespread publicity that physics is a science of chaotic system and how they work form the view of the general public.
Reference:
1. James Gleick, Chaos Theory --- butterfly effect
2. Allison Brown, "Has Chaos theory found any useful application in the social sciences?", http://people.brandeis.edu/~blebaron/ge/chaos.html
This article introduces the theory of chaos. The theory of chaos comes from the facts that are disordered, but chaos theory is to find the underlying order from apparently random data. Chaos was first discovered by a meteorologist named Edward Lorenz in 1960 when he was try to predict what the weather might be by using computing twelve equations. He found that even very little difference in the initial value would result in a very different pattern after a certain period of time. Such phenomenon, common to chaos theory, is called "Bufferfly Effect", which means that the flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. This idea is also explained as sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Aspects of chaos show up everywhere around the world, from the currents of the ocean and the flow of blood to the branches of trees and the effects of turbulence. Chaos theory has become a part of modern science.
Summary on "Has Chaos theory found any useful application in the social sciences?":
This article introduces the chaos theory has not had an impact in the social sciences as it has in the physical sciences. The author introduces the problems of applying chaos theory into social sciences. The first problem is that determining is not easy if a time series is generated by deterministic. The second problem is that the theoretical structure in chaos is based on purely deterministic that have no or a very small amount of noise. Such models works well in physical situations but does not in most social situations. Currently, Chaos theory has been introduced to the finance area because of the abundance of data and the obvious interest in detecting unknown predictable patterns. However, in practice, fitting chaotic processes to financial data has proved problematic because definitive statements about chaos lie well beyond what the data are able to tell us.
Comparison:
These two articles introduces the basic idea of chaos theory and the possibility of applying chaos theory into social sciences. Chaos has already had a lasting effect on science, yet there is much still left to be discovered. Many scientist believe that twentieth century science will be known for only three theories: relativity, quantum mechanics, and chaos. Currently, chaos theory has received widespread publicity that physics is a science of chaotic system and how they work form the view of the general public.
Reference:
1. James Gleick, Chaos Theory --- butterfly effect
2. Allison Brown, "Has Chaos theory found any useful application in the social sciences?", http://people.brandeis.edu/~blebaron/ge/chaos.html
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Really liked this entry -- and good insight into chaos and the social sciences